Aston Villa v Spurs: Time to Rob the Villains

aston villaTottenham played Aston Villa on the opening day of the 2019/20 season and in all honesty, we made hard work of it. Trailing to a John McGinn goal on 11 minutes, we had to wait until deep into the second half before Tanguy Ndombele equalised. Two late goals from Harry Kane sealed the 3-1 win but it was far from convincing and was something of a sign of things to come.

Fast forward to this Sunday’s return fixture and there’s no McGinn but there’s no Harry Kane either. Spurs and Villa are at opposite ends of the Premier League table but will those injury absences on either side mean the game will be closer than the betting markets will inevitably suggest?

Team News

The good news is that Giovani Lo Celso is expected to return after a minor thigh problem. We’re looking for the Argentine to make a goal scoring impact on Sunday so we hope the reports are correct.

Erik Lamela and the long-term absentee Ben Davies are also believed to be in contention for a start on the subs bench at the very least. That leaves Harry Kane and Moussa Sissoko as the definite injury victims. There are no suspensions so it could be just Kane and Sissoko who are unavailable for selection.

Match Odds

Aston Villa are one place above the relegation zone while Tottenham climbed to fifth on the back of the most recent win over Manchester City so the result market holds no surprises. Spurs will start as clear favourites and you can currently back the away side at best industry odds of 5/6 with SportingBet and 888Sport.

The draw is your next available option at 29/10 with SportNation and RedZone while victory for Aston Villa rounds us off at a top price of 7/2 with VBet.

Other Side Bets

Son Heung-Min

Son Heung-Min

Both sides have lost a clear attacking threat and that could mean that the individual goal scorer markets are far more open. Spurs players occupy the first three places and it’s Son Heung-Min who starts as the favourite to open the scoring at best industry odds of 5/1 with 888Sport and Unibet. Dele Alli may seem an unlikely second favourite at 6/1 while Lucas Moura is just behind at 13/2 – both with 888Sport and Unibet once again.

Spurs’ players dominate the top of the betting but then we come to Villa’s Mbwana Sammata at 15/2 with Betway and Borja Baston at 8/1 with BetFred. Both men signed for Villa in the January transfer window and may be unfamiliar to opposing fans so we’ll discuss them both in a later section.

Back to options in a Tottenham shirt and we could look to pick out Steven Bergwijn at a top price of 8/1 with Unibet and 888Sport while Erik Lamela is just behind at a best of 19/2 with the same two bookmakers. There doesn’t seem to be too much in the way of outside options for this current Tottenham team but Giovanni Lo Celso, at a top price of 12/1 with BetFred and SportNation, will attract some interest.

We continue on our round up of regular side bets with Both Teams to Score which is quoted this week at best odds of 13/20 with Betway. For other games in the EPL, we’ve seen the BTTS bet climb towards Even Money so we won’t be taking it this time. In fact, it may be wiser to take the ‘No’ option for this bet which looks tempting at 6/5 with William Hill and 10Bet.

We suspect that there may not be too many goals. Spurs haven’t exactly been bursting the back of the net on a regular basis during this transition period and, although we’re now bored of mentioning it, the absence of Harry Kane continues to have an effect.

With that in mind, you might want to back Over 2.5 goals which is available at best odds of 3/4 with Betway but we suspect that you could look at going under that line to claim a price of 6/5 with BetFred and 888Sport.

We always like to finish with a Correct Score and our suggestions reflect how we’re thinking about this match. A 2-0 away win can be picked up at best odds of 10/1 with VBet while a 1-0 victory in favour of Aston Villa is quoted at 57/4 with 10Bet.

Dangerman

Maybe we’re overstating the loss of John McGinn somewhat. The Scottish international is just a midfielder and has scored three goals in 18 Premier League games this season. The tally includes some important strikes but McGinn is some way down the list of Villa’s leading scorers.

At the very top of that list is former Tottenham target Jack Grealish who has nine strikes at an average of 254 minutes per goal. Conor Hourihane’s seven goals leaves him behind on numbers but his average of 176 minutes is better.

Meanwhile, new signings Borja Baston and Mbwana Samatta are Villa’s favourites in the individual goal scorer betting so what are we actually saying here? With two new faces, including Samatta who scored on his Villa debut last time out, we’re not really sure what to expect. Perhaps Dean Smith has been very shrewd in the transfer market and Samatta and Baston are set to transform the Villains’ season…

Head to Head

tottenhamSpurs and Aston Villa first met back in 1903 and Sunday’s fixture will be the 165th senior meeting between the two sides. Tottenham have the upper hand with 73 wins, as opposed to Villa’s total of 56 and there have been 35 draws.

Those numbers have been boosted by recent results which show that Spurs have only lost once to Villa in the last 18 encounters. We’ve won our last four against the Villains in all competitions so Dean Smith’s side will be hopeful, rather than confident, of bucking that trend on Sunday.

Verdict

Conceding home advantage against a team fighting for survival makes us less confident of the three points. Yes we have the greater depth of quality in the squad and we should be adding to that impressive run of victories over the Midlands-based outfit.

The concern lies with those two new signings – Baston and Samatta – who could make Villa more potent in the last third of the season. As always, therefore, we’ll avoid tipping the result and instead. We’ll look for some side bets.

Giovani Lo Celso can provide the creativity that Christian Eriksen’s departure requires and now we need him to back it up with goals. The Argentine will be looking to prove the point on Sunday and he looks a good value pick at 9/2 to score in 90 minutes.

We’ll take the ‘no’ vote on Both Teams to Score as neither Spurs nor Villa are setting the goal stats alight but we do think there will be a winner. To balance and to maybe take a slight hedge, we’ll therefore take the one-goal winning margin for either side which looks a good value pick at 6/4 with Betway.

Best Bets:

  • Both Teams to Score: Bet ‘No’ at 6/5 with William Hill
  • Winning Margin of one goal on either side at 6/4 with Betway

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