Spurs v Everton: Chance to close the season in style

tottenhamThe Premier League campaign is finally reaching its conclusion. As for Spurs, we’re limping over the line in the EPL while looking for a possible boost from Wednesday’s dramatic game in Amsterdam.

Three points and a goal difference of +8 separate us from Arsenal in fifth place and some would say that you’re not a real Spurs fan if you think that a top four finish is certain. We don’t necessarily agree with that statement but we’ll certainly not be completely happy until that final whistle sounds and Champions League football is guaranteed.

Standing in our way this Sunday are Everton who cannot finish in the European places but, following some positive results of their own, the Toffees will be confident of taking advantage of our weak league form.

Date: 12 May, 2019

Team News

As usual, we are some way ahead of ourselves in relation to confirmed team news but there are some things we already know. Harry Kane remains out while Son Heung-Min and Juan Foyth are both suspended following their red cards at Bournemouth last weekend.

Harry Winks is also out and we will assume that Serge Aurier continues to be unavailable. Jan Vertonghen will also surely sit this out after leaving the Ajax Arena in a protective boot.

Confirmed team news will, of course, come from the club closer to kick off time but this is what we know so far.

Match Odds

Spurs v Everton: Chance to close the season in styleThe bookmakers are backing the home win but there are currently, odds against prices on all three possible outcomes. It’s rare for this to happen when Spurs are at home but it’s clearly a measure of our poor league form right now.

Tottenham lead the way and can be claimed at 6/5 with Betway and Black Type while victory for Everton is available at best odds of 5/2 with Unibet and BETDAQ. Completing the market is the draw which can be claimed at that same top price of 5/2 with Unibet and Smarkets.

The first thing to do is keep 11 men on the pitch. The failure to do that resulted in that 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth last time out but moreover, our league form is woeful. We’d probably all settle for keeping it tight and claiming a narrow 1-0 win or even the draw that would keep us clear of Arsenal.

We’re favouring that draw but who is left in the camp to make that a reality?

Other Side Bets

dele alli

Dele Alli

Ignore any reference to Harry Kane in the individual goal scorer betting: Even if there was a chance of Kane being close to fitness he surely wouldn’t be risked with a Champions League final approaching.

There are isolated references to Sonny too but our first realistic options are Fernando Llorente and Vincent Janssen who are both on offer at best industry odds of 13/2 with Betway to score the first goal. We say realistic but misfiring is one issue while Janssen, and possibly also Llorente, are set to start from the bench.

Everton appear next in the shape of Richarlison who is quoted at 7/1 with BetFred. Gylfi Sigurdsson is also listed at best odds of 7/1 with 10Bet and Bethard while Dominic Calvert-Lewin can be backed at a top price of 17/2 with BetFred.

Other options for Tottenham include Dele Alli at best odds of 8/1 with Betway while Erik Lamela may get a rare start. Lamela looks short at his 8/1 with Unibet and SportNation so we could look, instead, at Christian Eriksen at 8/1 once again – this time with Betway and Black Type.

In terms of other betting markets, the popular Both Teams to Score is quoted at 8/13 with William Hill and SportPesa. Considering Spurs’ scoring issues in the league, it may be better to vote ‘No’ on that and get 5/4 with Coral and Unibet but we think BTTS is safe this weekend.

Finally, in the Overs and Unders goal betting, betting on over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5 with 888Sport and BetFred but you could be braver and go Over 3.5 which would land at best odds of 41/20 with Unibet and 888Sport.

Dangerman

We mentioned Richarlison in the betting round up and he would seem like a logical place to start in terms of the dangerman. He’s favourite to open the scoring from an Everton perspective but is he really the man to watch?

For all of the interest surrounding the Brazilian, he’s managed just 13 goals in 35 Premier League games so, while there is a threat, it may be an overhyped one.

Elsewhere, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has six in 31 so perhaps we should be looking at our former midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelander offers that danger from set pieces and is Everton’s dangerman from midfield. It’s a measure of the Toffee’s season that we can’t pin down one specific player but these three seem the most likely to find the back of the net.

Head to Head

When these sides met over the festive period, Spurs and their fans were buoyant. A 6-2 win at Goodison Park came during a particularly productive patch when it seemed as though we might even make a challenge for the Premier League title.

It hasn’t quite worked like that but anyway, back to the question of head to head results between these teams. Historically, things are relatively tight: There have been 176 matches with Everton winning 55 while there have been 54 draws. That means that Tottenham have the edge with 67 wins.

The recent stats are particularly interesting and we haven’t actually lost to Everton since 2012. From that point, there have been 12 games with Spurs winning seven along with five draws. That’s an exceptional record and one that would be nice to see continued on Sunday.

Verdict

Last games of the season can be tough to predict at the best of times but just how do you fathom Spurs at the moment? Abject for much of the last few weeks, the team suddenly wake up in Amsterdam and put three second half goals on the side who had knocked out Real Madrid and Juventus.

I tipped a Spurs defeat in Amsterdam on Wednesday and perhaps I should continue with that type of prediction. It’s strange how negative bias can really mess with your mind at times and there was the conviction that we would lose heavily in the Johan Cruyff Arena.

Should we have more faith this Sunday? Possibly – after the performance in midweek which will have hopefully given everyone a lift. It may be one of those games where you may want to keep your money in your pocket but we’re favouring a high scoring draw. Over 3.5 goals and Both Teams to Score are the ways to go for the Sunday showdown.

Best Bets:

  • Both Teams to Score at 8/13 with William Hill
  • Over 3.5 Goals at 41/20 with Unibet

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