Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa: Looking Like a ‘Must Win’ for Nuno’s Spurs

tottenhamWhile it may be unfair to suggest that the seventh game of a league season should be classed as a ‘must win’, Spurs will be desperate for the points when Aston Villa arrive at the new White Hart Lane this Sunday.

That opening run of wins has quickly been forgotten with abject performances resulting in the three straight defeats that they fully deserved. A home game against Villa seems more than winnable on paper but our eighth placed visitors are currently one of ten clubs above us in the table.

Team News

This is one of those fast turnaround games where team news has been slow to trickle in. Nuno kept the big guns in reserve against Mura last night but felt forced into a triple substitution with the game at 2-1.

There appear to be no ill-effects in the wake of that 5-1 victory so the only likely absentees are as before. Steven Bergwijn and Ryan Sessegnon continue to nurse long term injuries with no return dates confirmed as yet. There are no suspensions so the squad is close to full strength.

Match Odds

Tottenham remain favourites to take all three points but it’s interesting to note that there are odds against prices for all possible outcomes. The home win is currently available at 23/20 with MansionBet and 10Bet while the draw and a victory for Aston Villa are listed at the same odds of 13/5 with BetFred.

Dean Smith’s Aston Villa are a point above us with three wins, one draw and two defeats from their opening six Premier League matches. More concerning is the fact that their last two EPL matches resulted in impressive wins over Everton and Manchester United.

Neutrals will definitely see some value in a positive result for the visitors but will this be the day that we turn things around?

Side Markets

It’s no great coincidence that Spurs are struggling while Harry Kane has yet to score in the league this season. We’ve relied solely on him for so long while failing constantly to provide any tangible back up, even when he’s spent long periods in the physio’s room.

Following his hat trick as a sub on Thursday night, Harry will hopefully be set to break his duck in the league and he’s the favourite to score the first goal here at best odds of 15/4 with Unibet. Son Heung-Min is next at 11/2 with VBet while Villa’s Danny Ings takes third place at a top price of 23/4 with Unibet.

Harry Kane

Harry Kane

Other first goalscorer options from a Tottenham point of view include Lucas Moura at 9/1 with BetFred, Dele Alli at 11/1 with SportNation and Giovani Lo Celso at 14/1 with 10Bet.

Away from the goal scorer betting, Both Teams to Score is on offer for this match at best odds of 4/5 with MansionBet. As we always say, when this market gets close to Even Money then it’s worth taking a closer look.

The same could apply in the total goals market where you can get 9/10 with 10Bet and VBet to go Above the 2.5 line. If we push that a little further, VBet are quoting 9/4 on Over 3.5 goals.

Based on our recent results, it may be wiser to look at a low scoring 90 minutes. With that in mind, you could go Under the 2.5 goal line for best odds of Even Money with 10Bet while a ‘No’ bet on Both Teams to Score will currently land 23/20 with 888Sport and MansionBet.

We’ll finish off with some correct score suggestions and there is likely to be some neutral interest in a 1-1 final outcome. This carries the lowest price in the Correct Score betting and can be found at best odds of 15/2 with MansionBet.

Last Season

We shouldn’t spend too much time in this section: Not only was our 1-2 home defeat to Villa back in May a forgettable 90 minutes, it also brought our hopes of a top six finish to a close. It had started brightly with Steven Bergwijn putting us ahead on eight minutes but we were behind at the break.

A freak Sergio Reguilon own goal and a strike for Ollie Watkins finished things off before half time.

In terms of recent head to heads, that was the Villains’ first win over Spurs in seven attempts. Tottenham had won all of the previous six encounters including a 3-1 victory at the very start of the 2019/20 campaign.

Verdict

aston villaCan anyone even attempt to make a prediction with any degree of certainty? It’s even tough for us to trot out the old line that we should be winning it: Aston Villa have beaten Everton and Manchester United in recent weeks so why should we expect a comfortable 90 minutes?

Honestly, we do try to stay positive here but this club doesn’t make it easy for us. Away from the result, there is the statistic which shows we have scored just four goals this season. We have yet to score more than one goal in a single game and that’s pretty pathetic.

From a betting perspective, that isn’t encouraging if you are taking a look at the goals betting. Both Teams to Score may look unlikely based on the numbers while Total Goals markets aren’t expecting a great deal of action in front of the net.

We’re hoping that it’s time for the trends to be bucked on Sunday. Nuno Espirito Santo has taken responsibility for some poor tactics and we should see some more attacking play on our behalf. In turn, that will leave us open at the back.

We’ll therefore look at some familiar side bets: Both Teams to Score and Over 3.5 goals are the picks this week. That goes against all of our league performances with the exception of the game last Sunday but it’s time for change.

As for the match result, we wouldn’t dare call it. Our semi-regular bet on a winning margin of one goal to either side seems to have disappeared for this season but it could be that tight. Let’s just hope we can pick up this dismal run of league form.

Best Bets

  • Both Teams to Score at 4/5 with MansionBet
  • Over 3.5 goals at 9/4 with VBet

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