Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur: Hope Springs Eternal

burnleyIt’s been another miserable week in a long and difficult campaign and we’ve now reached the stage where many of us can’t wait for the season to come to a close. Defeat to Norwich City in the FA Cup on Wednesday night removed Tottenham’s only real chance of claiming a trophy and now the battle is on to remain in the European places.

We continue with what looks to be a difficult trip to Turf Moor to face a Burnley side who will go ahead of us with a win and the Clarets will get plenty of backers in this Saturday 3pm kick off.

Team News

The big question that we’ve yet to find an answer to revolves around Hugo Lloris. We have enough problems at the top end of the pitch and we really need our first choice keeper back in between the posts as soon as possible.

The other doubt concerns Ryan Sessegnon who may return while Harry Kane, Moussa Sissoko and Son Heung-Min will continue to miss out.

A further variable surrounds Jose Mourinho and his comments over priorities. Will the manager weaken the league side ahead of the trip to RB Leipzig as he looks to salvage something from our season? There are lots of questions this week and we’ll only find out the true answers an hour from kick off.

Match Odds

Tottenham will start as favourites but there are odds against numbers on all three possible outcomes. You can claim the away side at 11/7 with VBet while victory for Burnley is available at 37/19 with SportingBet and the draw rounds it all off at 23/10 with William Hill and GentingBet.

Neutral punters will see plenty of value in that market but few will back Spurs with any great confidence. We simply wouldn’t get involved right now but, let’s attempt to be positive by looking at the players who can change the course of this game.

Other Side Bets

Lucas Moura

Lucas Moura

Tottenham may be the favourites in terms of the match result but as far as individual goal scorer betting is concerned, Burnley are dominating. Four home players are in front of our first representative and it all starts with favourite Chris Wood at best odds of 5/1 with GentingBet. Ashley Barnes is next at 11/2 with BetFred and then we move through Matej Vydra and Jay Rodriguez before we get to our own Lucas Moura.

Brazilian international Moura can be claimed at a top price of 13/2 with Betway and 888Sport while Dele Alli is just behind at a best of 7/1 with Unibet. Will we see Troy Parrott get a run out at Turf Moor? The teenager was a late, late substitute in the defeat to Wolves last Sunday and came on again in extra time against Norwich so perhaps he’ll see greater involvement on Saturday.

In regards to some long shots, you could consider Giovani Lo Celso at best odds of 12/1 with BetFred and 888Sport, Tanguy Ndombele at a top price of 20/1 or even Serge Aurier at a tempting best of 40/1 with Unibet.

Our regular list of remaining side bets starts with Both Teams to Score which is on offer for this match at 17/20 with William Hill. We think that should be pretty safe and at least we’ve found the net in all three matches since Son Heung-Min joined Harry Kane in the long term treatment room.

Total Goals markets can also be targeted for the same reason and we’ll start with Over 2.5 which comes in at 11/10 with Coral and GentingBet. We often see that figure drop below the Even Money line so that could be a value pick. We wouldn’t suggest going any higher but if you’re feeling brave, you can look at Over 3.5 goals which will return 37/13 with SportNation and RedZoneSports.

Our prediction is for a narrow win with three goals at most and with that theory in mind, we’ll quickly switch to the Correct Score betting. A 2-1 scoreline in Spurs’ favour can be picked up at 9/1 with Betway and VBet while the same outcome in favour of Burnley is available at an industry best of 10/1 with 10Bet.

As we’re expecting that close encounter, we would suggest looking at one of our favourite bets – the winning margin of one goal for either side which is available this time at 5/4 with Betway.

Dangerman

We’ve mentioned that Chris Wood holds the shortest prices in the individual goal scorer betting but there are four Burnley players ahead of us in those markets. The stats aren’t that exciting – Wood has ten goals this season and his nearest challenger is Jay Rodriguez with eight, followed by Ashley Barnes with six.

Wood has hurt us before so perhaps he is the obvious dangerman but clearly there are a number of players that need watching.

Head to Head

tottenhamSpurs and Burnley have met 115 times to date and this is a historic encounter. Both sides were major forces in English football in the 1960s and therefore it’s not a great surprise that the head to head stats are quite close.

Over those 115 games, we have won 47, Burnley have been victorious in 41 and there have been 27 draws. The only question that really matters is whether we will extend that small margin on Saturday or will our opponents close the gap?

Verdict

In the reverse fixture at the new Tottenham Hotspur stadium, we ran out winners by five goals to nil but surely no-one will be expecting a similar outcome. It was the most emphatic performance under Jose Mourinho but it was also a game which featured stunning strikes from Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min.

Without those two players in the side, goals have been harder to come by and if we are to win, a one-goal margin is a more likely scenario. We’ll therefore finish now with these related tips and we’ll hope, rather than expect, that close, hard-fought victory.

Best Bets:

  • Both Teams to Score at 17/20 with William Hill
  • Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Coral
  • Winning Margin of one goal to either side at 5/4 with Betway

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