Marine AFC v Tottenham Hotspur: Another Road to Wembley Begins

marine fcOur cup saga continues on Sunday as we make the trip to Merseyside to take on Marine AFC. On paper it’s a kind draw and one that would have been a lucrative tie for our opponents had fans been allowed back into stadiums.

As things stand, the lack of supporters on either side will continue to make for a strange atmosphere but it’s not had any effect on the expected outcome.

Team News

We can expect a much changed side from our usual Premier League unit and from the XI that began the game against Brentford on Tuesday. Hugo Lloris, Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min all started the match but are likely to be on the bench at best.

In terms of confirmed absentees, the injury and suspension list includes Giovani Lo Celso, Erik Lamela and Matt Doherty. As we’ll see, the sportsbooks have included Gareth Bale in their goalscoring markets but he’s expected to remain sidelined for now. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg sustained that nasty cut in midweek but reports suggest he will be available.

Across the media, stories have hinted at call ups for Joe Rodon, Jack Clarke, Dane Scarlett and even Gedson Fernandes so it’s going to be tough to second guess the starting XI for Sunday.

Match Odds

Harry Kane

Harry Kane

Spurs lead things off in the result market and the odds on an away win in 90 minutes currently stand at 1/40 with BetFred. The draw is available at 20/1 with Unibet and 888Sport while a win for Marine completes the result betting at 50/1 with BetFred once again.

With the game needed to be settled on the day, those are the odds for the result in 90 minutes, excluding any potential extra time. That means that we should see a separate To Qualify market but at the moment none of our recommended sportsbooks have declared prices.

Clearly we should come through but a very weakened starting XI could just give Marine a chance.

Side Markets

You may want to wait for confirmed line ups before getting involved with any individual goal scorer betting but, as things stand, Harry Kane takes up his usual position as favourite to find the net first. Kane is quoted at best industry odds of 19/10 with Betway while reserve striker Carlos Vinicius follows at a top price of 13/5 with VBet.

Behind the top two, the bookies seem to be expecting a call up for Dane Scarlett with the youngster on offer at 13/5 with Betway to open the scoring. The same bookmaker quotes 16/5 for both Gareth Bale and Lucas Moura while Dele Alli and Steven Bergwijn are at 5/1 and 11/2 respectively – both with Betway again.

The first name from Marine’s point of view is that of Niall Cummins who can be claimed at a top price of 40/1 with Betway once again.

When the sportsbooks expect a one sided game, there can often be some potential value in some of the side markets. Both Teams to Score is a good example and for a bet that rarely gets to Even Money, it’s available for Sunday’s match at 24/13 with SportPesa.

Total Goals looks to offer slightly less value with Over 2.5 quoted at best odds of just 1/10 with BetFred. Over 3.5 isn’t much better with a top price of 2/7 coming from Betway and we have to go to Over 5.5 before we get an odds against figure. If we get at least six goals in this game, VBet will pay out at 16/13 but maybe this is a market to avoid on Sunday.

The same could be said for the Correct Score bet which is hard enough to predict on a regular week. An option here could be to take a 4-1 win in favour of Spurs which is quoted at 17/1 with Novibet.

Who are They?

tottenhamSunday’s opponents play in the Northern Premier League North West Division having been relegated from the overall Premier League at the end of the 2018/19 season. They were established in 1897 and play their home games at Rossett Park in Crosby which would usually accommodate a capacity crowd of 3,185. Sales of virtual tickets appear to have shattered the ‘attendance’ record and financially it’s been a great run for the Merseyside outfit.

Over the course of their history, Marine have a number of honours at non league level but perhaps their greatest achievement, prior to this cup run, came in 1932 when they reached the final of the prestigious FA Amateur Cup. Needless to say there are no head to head stats available so they are very much an unknown quantity.

Verdict

Even if you’re convinced that Spurs will win this game, the heavy odds on prices make it a prohibitive bet. Tottenham playing a significantly weakened side might just help to give Marine a chance of a positive result but there should be enough senior players on the pitch to help avoid such an outcome.

That leaves us with the side markets and, as an almost certain starter, we’ll start with Carlos Vinicius to open the scoring. Our loanee striker has looked sharp enough when leading the line against Europa League opposition and, while we could take Carlos for an anytime goal, those odds for a 90 minute effort are too short once again.

Total Goals betting is another market to avoid and we’re reluctant to go Over a high 5.5 line to find an odds against price. Instead, we’ll finish with Both Teams to Score as we feel that Marine should get enough chances to get on the scoresheet against a reserve set of defenders and a team that has a more attacking mindset than our Premier League starting XI.

It kicks off at 5pm this Sunday and is live on BBC 1 so let’s leave it at two selections and hope for a comfortable evening with no alarms and no surprises.

Best Bets

  • Carlos Vinicius to score the first goal at 13/5 with VBet
  • Both Teams to Score at 24/13 with SportPesa

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