Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur: Saints or Spurs to March On?

southamptonWith our first league win of 2020 in the book, Spurs’ focus now switches back to the FA Cup and a fourth round tie at Southampton. The Saints helped to start our year in the worst possible fashion with that 1-0 defeat on January 1st that also saw Harry Kane limp out of action for the next few weeks.

Clearly we owe Southampton one but can we march on in the Cup and continue to target some long overdue silverware?

Team News

The update here involves the injury to Harry Winks who limped out of Wednesday night’s win over Norwich. The England midfielder is likely to be out for a number of weeks and therefore joins Harry Kane and Moussa Sissoko in the long-term treatment room.

Recent reports hinted at a possible return this weekend for Ben Davies but it’s debatable whether the left back will be risked in the FA Cup. The competition does give us our only realistic chance of silverware but it would be no surprise to see Mourinho switch things around. Among the many questions is the possibility of a first start for Gedson Fernandes following his loan move earlier this month.

Match Odds

This is one of those games where odds against prices can be found across the board so neutral punters can earn a decent profit if they make the right call. Tottenham are favourites to win it in 90 minutes at 7/5 with SportNation while a win for the Saints is the next option on the list at 9/5 with Unibet and VBet. Completing the result betting is the draw which can be claimed at 5/2 with BetFred and SportingBet.

Southampton have been tough opponents this year: We’ve already completed our league fixtures and we stand at one victory apiece with both matches ending with one goal winning margins. We suspect Saturday’s FA Cup tie will be equally tight but who are the men who will make the difference?

Other Side Bets

Son Heung-Min

Son Heung-Min

Our issues in front of goal since Harry Kane’s injury mean that Southampton provide the favourite in the first goalscorer betting. Danny Ings has already caused us problems this season and the former Liverpool man gets things underway at best odds of 4/1 with VBet. Spurs move in from this point and Son Heung-Min follows at best odds of 13/2 with Unibet and 888Sport.

As we trawl through the list, Lucas Moura becomes available at a top price of 15/2 and he’s followed by the Southampton pair of Che Adams at 8/1 and Shane Long at 17/2 – all with Unibet and 888Sport once again.

If we focus on the remaining Spurs options, Dele Alli scored the opener against Norwich on Wednesday and he slots in at a top price of 9/1 with VBet while Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela are at 11/1, followed by Giovani Lo Celso at 13/1 – all with 888Sport and Unibet.

In our regular list of optional side markets, both teams to score in 90 minutes is quoted at best odds of 11/18 with SportNation. It’s short, particularly when you consider that we are playing without a striker, but having gained some confidence in midweek, we should help this bet to land.

We think it will be tight so, punters can head back to that useful market from Betway that provides a winning margin bet for either team. Spurs or Southampton to win by one goal on Saturday looks good at 11/8.

For longer prices in the Correct Score betting, 2-1 to Tottenham may be the way to go at best industry odds of 35/4 with SportingBet. Alternatively, the same outcome in favour of Southampton is available at a top price of 21/2 with RedZone and SportNation.

Dangerman

This column can start to get blindingly obvious so forgive us if we repeat ourselves at times. We’ve already seen that Danny Ings carries the shortest prices in the individual goal scorer markets and the striker has notched both Southampton goals against us this season.

Ings is the man to watch but in a comfortable win over Crystal Palace in midweek, Nathan Redmond capped an impressive performance with a fine goal.

Head to Head

tottenhamA win for each side in the league this season leaves the head to head stats at 82 victories for Spurs as opposed to 64 in favour of Southampton. Added to those numbers are 49 draws in a fixture that dates all the way back to 1897.

We’ve met in the FA Cup on a number of occasions but we have to go back to 2003 for the last time Tottenham and Southampton were drawn together in this competition. We lost 4-0 that day so perhaps we shouldn’t have mentioned it. Let’s forget that and instead. We’ll channel memories of Rocket Ronny Rosenthal’s hat trick in a 6-2 win back in 1995.

Verdict

We needed a replay to come through against Middlesbrough in the last round and few of us would be surprised if the scores finished level on Saturday at St Mary’s. A draw would be a nuisance to both teams and with Spurs facing a busy period, we could do without the extra fixture.

We suspect, however, that it will be decided on the day but it should be tight. Both league games were decided by a solitary goal and they winning margin bet with Betway should be the way to go. We’ll look to keep it positive: Wednesday’s win over Norwich City showed up a team that was nervous at times but with a lift in confidence, they can overcome any side even if Harry Kane is absent. Tottenham for the narrow victory is the hope but rather than jinx it, we’ll back Giovani Lo Celso to continue his impressive run of form with an important goal as we look to edge over the line at the first attempt.

Best Bets:

  • Both Teams to Score at 11/18 with SportNation
  • Either Team to win by One Goal at 11/8 with Betway
  • Giovani Lo Celso to score at any time in 90 minutes at 19/4 with Unibet

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