Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur: Cup Tie Clarets lie in wait

burnleyAnother busy week sees Spurs face a fast turnaround following our visit to the London Stadium on Sunday. Turf Moor is our destination with Burnley waiting for Nuno’s men in Wednesday’s EFL Cup tie.

We’ve seen the team play out another mixed set of matches: At times against Newcastle, there were positive signs and the 3-2 final scoreline flattered the Magpies. Since then, a poor performance from the second string side in Holland was followed by another toothless display at West Ham.

It makes it very difficult to predict what will happen in this cup tie but much is likely to depend on personnel.

Team News

It’s going to be impossible to second guess this line up: Yes, Nuno might have picked a strong side in the previous round against Wolves but we had a sacrificial starting XI in the Netherlands last week.

In regards to those who are definitely ruled out, Ryan Sessegnon is set to miss the cut once again. Matt Doherty missed Sunday’s game at West Ham but could be involved here at some point. Otherwise, it’s a case of waiting for updates from the manager and the club’s website.

Match Odds

For once, it seems the bookmakers are also expecting Tottenham to put out a weakened side. We are the favourites, but the result betting is tight with odds against prices on all three 90-minute outcomes.

Spurs are ahead and can currently be claimed at 29/20 with BetFred and 888Sport for the win in normal time. Burney are next at best odds of 2/1 with Betway while the draw can be taken at 47/20 with MansionBet.

There is a separate To Qualify market and that is equally tight. Including the possibility of extra time and penalties, Burnley are quoted at 4/5 with VBet to progress while Tottenham are on offer at Even Money with Betway.

Side Markets

I’ll certainly be waiting for team news before even thinking about a bet in the individual goal scoring markets. Unless Nuno offers a hint at his team in the press conference, it’s almost impossible to guess who’ll be involved.

There is a full set of odds for first goalscorer and Harry Kane is at the top with best odds of 15/4 with Betway. Burnley’s Chris Wood follows at 24/5 with VBet while Son Heung-Min is next at a top price of 13/2 with VBet once again.

Other possibilities from within the Spurs squad include Dele Alli at 8/1 with Betway, Bryan Gil at 9/1 with SportNation, Lucas Moura at 9/1 with 10Bet and Steven Bergwijn at 9/1 with BetFred.

Harry Kane

Harry Kane

In other side bets, Both Teams to Score in 90 minutes is available at best odds of 5/7 with 10Bet. Alternatively, the same bookmaker is quoting the top price of 5/4 if you want to back ‘No’ on BTTS.

Moving on to Total Combined Goals and you can currently get 6/7 with SportNation for a stake Over the 2.5 line. A push up to Over 3.5 will see those figures lift to best odds of 9/4 with Unibet.

Finishing off with some Correct Score suggestions, a 1-1 draw in 90 minutes could be a popular pick and that’s currently listed at 27/5 with Unibet. Alternatively, a 2-1 win for Spurs is quoted at 83/10 with Novibet while the same scoreline in favour of Burnley can be backed at 37/4 with Novibet once again.

Head to Head

There was a time when Spurs and Burnley used to meet in cup ties on a frequent basis. Of course, the most famous instance came in 1962 when the great Bill Nicholson side beat the Clarets 3-1 in the FA Cup Final.

Burnley got their revenge two years later when they beat Tottenham 3-0 in one of the earlier rounds of the same competition while they were drawn together again in 1966. Spurs won that game 4-3 and, as two of the strongest sides through much of the 1960s, it’s no great surprise that Burnley continued to cross our path.

More recently, Spurs needed a replay back in 2015 to come through an FA Cup third round tie. It was 1-1 at the end of the first game before goals from Paulinho, Etienne Capoue, Vlad Chiriches and Danny Rose sealed a 4-2 win after we had gone 2-0 down inside the first ten minutes.

Overall, the teams have played each other 119 times at senior level. Tottenham have won 50, lost 28 and there have been 41 draws.

Verdict

tottenhamWe’ve hinted at this a number of times in this preview but much will depend on the team that Nuno sends out at Turf Moor. The EFL Cup represents a chance to win silverware and, at the very least, there should be a stronger bench than the one that took on Vitesse last week.

Maybe it was felt that, with two home games in the Europa Conference League and a trip to a weak NS Mura side, it was worth putting out a second string team in Holland with nothing on the bench. Who knows – but there may be more strength to our starting line up at Turf Moor on Wednesday.

We suspect that it may end up as a cagey affair with the two teams level at the end of normal time. A draw in 90 minutes looks more than plausible and the spectre of the dreaded penalty shootout would loom once again.

I feel it could be low scoring too and the first suggestion is to back Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 with 10Bet. I’d hoped that this may have sneaked above Even Money but the bookies are clearly thinking along the same lines.

I’m struggling with a second tip: Both Teams to Score looks too short at 5/7 and who knows which players will be in contention in the first goalscorer betting? Potentially, Lucas Moura could play a full part or, at the very least, he’ll be subbed on early in the second half. It’s the type of game where he could make an impression so we’ll take Lucas for an anytime goal.

Remember, both of these suggestions are for 90 minutes only, excluding any extra time.

Best Bets

  • Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 with 10Bet
  • Lucas Moura to score at any time in 90 minutes at 7/2 with Betway

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