Spurs v Arsenal: Can The NLD Lift The Mood?

tottenhamDepending on your optimistic or pessimistic viewpoint, this game is either your highlight of the season or it’s the one that you dread. Happily, we have enjoyed more of the upper hand in recent North London Derbies but our current subdued form suggests that Sunday might just be a struggle.

We’ll remain hopeful and as positive as possible but a dismal performance away to Bournemouth on Thursday night is making it difficult to lift the mood.

Team News

Our preview for the Bournemouth game was published just before news of Eric Dier’s four match ban broke. The defender missed out on the trip to the South Coast and is set to sit in the stands until the final game of the season, away to Crystal Palace.

Otherwise, there shouldn’t be too many changes in terms of availability. Once again, we’ve had to write this before any confirmed team news comes out but, Dier aside, it looks to be a case of ‘as you were’.

Match Odds

The market is a tight one for Sunday’s 4.30pm kick off and there are odds against prices for all three possible outcomes. If there is any benefit to having home advantage right now, it’s helped to make Spurs the narrow favourites and you can back Jose Mourinho’s men at 22/13 with VBet. Victory for Arsenal can be claimed at best odds of 15/8 with Coral and Ladbrokes while the draw rounds things off at a top price of 28/11 with VBet once again.

After a disappointing start to the Premier League’s return, Arsenal are in their best form of the season and will come into this match on the back of four wins and a draw at home to Leicester last time out. The best thing we can say about Tottenham is that we haven’t conceded in our last two matches. We have also lost just once since Project Restart kicked in so there are some positives on paper. However, this week has been painful viewing and, against a Bournemouth team who had lost all of their games since returning from the break, we didn’t manage a single shot on target. That clearly needs to improve on Sunday.

Side Bets

harry kane

Harry Kane

Harry Kane has some competition in the first goal scorer betting this time and our sole striker is a joint favourite with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in places. Elsewhere, Aubameyang has moved into the favourite’s berth at best odds of 19/5 with Unibet and 888Sport while the same two bookmakers have Kane out at a top price of 9/2.

Alexandre Lacazette is next at a best of 6/1 with 888Sport and Unibet while Son Heung-Min is listed at a top price of 13/2 with Betway. Some longer options from a Spurs’ perspective include Dele Alli at 15/2 with SportNation and GentingBet, Steven Bergwijn at 17/2 with 888Sport, Lucas Moura at 10/1 with BetFred and Erik Lamela at 12/1 with SportPesa.

Anyone who has watched Spurs this week will be reluctant to take Both Teams to Score. A solitary Michael Keane own goal is our total return from two games and that’s seen BTTS move out to an industry best of 4/6 with SportNation.

The Overs and Unders options will also need careful consideration when we look at the Total Goals markets. That own goal is the only time that the ball has found the net legitimately in the last two matches and a bet Over the 2.5 goal line will currently return a top price of 16/19 with VBet. To be a touch braver, backing Over 3.5 combined goals is quoted at best odds of 21/10 with SportNation.

As for Correct Score betting, while we look vulnerable in this game, there shouldn’t be too much in it. Aside from the 4-0 thumping of bottom side Norwich City, Arsenal’s recent victories haven’t necessarily been emphatic and one goal may be enough to decide the destiny of Sunday’s match.

Those with a positive disposition can claim a 2-1 home win at 19/2 with 10Bet while the same scoreline in favour of the opposition is quoted at 9/1 by BetFred and Genting Bet.

With those thoughts in mind, we’re also going to be considering one of our favoured side bets. A winning margin of one goal on either side is available this time at 11/8 with Betway.

Dangerman

While not wanting to talk up the virtues of any Arsenal players, there are a number of threats in their line up. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang carries the shortest odds in the first goal scorer betting and the Gabonese striker is Arsenal’s leading scorer by some margin. Aubameyang has 23 goals so far this season while Alexandre Lacazette is next with a meagre 10.

There will be threats from other parts of the pitch but for this match, the dangerman is an obvious one.

Verdict

arsenalClearly, if we are to get anything from this game then we need to seriously improve on those two performances against Everton and Bournemouth. Our opponents this week offered very little up front but Arsenal will be a far different prospect. There is much to play for in both camps and playing like your mind is on a beach somewhere isn’t going to deliver.

The good news is that we have a decent record in North London Derbies of late. Of the last 13 games between the two teams, we’ve won four, drawn six and lost three. Obviously there is some bad news and that relates to our form:

As for predictions, we’ll take that narrow winning margin option from Betway. We can still keep things tight at the back and make it hard for our opponents to break through but Hugo Lloris is likely to need to be in top form between the posts.

It’s hard to see us scoring but, if the tactics and a switched on attack combine, we can still get something out of this match and have a brighter end to this long campaign than many of us feared.

Best Bets

  • Harry Kane to score at any time in 90 minutes at 21/20 with 888Sport
  • Both Teams to Score at 4/6 with SportNation
  • Winning Margin of one goal on either side at 11/8 with Betway

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